On a pivotal night at Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins suffered a stinging 4-3 defeat to the Cleveland Guardians, squandering a three-run lead in the process. Griffin Jax's eighth-inning meltdown, punctuated by a two-run homer from Kyle Manzardo, sealed their fate and continued a troubling trend for the Twins.
Having lost 18 of their last 27 games, the Twins' grip on the third AL wild-card spot is becoming increasingly tenuous, now reduced to a slim 1 1/2 game lead. The stakes grow higher by the day, as reflected in their dwindling postseason odds—once at a robust 95.4% on September 5, they have now plummeted to 76.4%, per FanGraphs.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking," said a solemn Pablo López. "Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
For a team that has failed to score more than three runs in 12 of their last 27 games, offensive woes are glaringly evident. The Twins have posted a .236 batting average, a .296 on-base percentage, and a .381 slugging percentage during this stretch. Particularly when the bases are empty, the team has struggled, hitting just .272, the fourth worst in the league.
Manager Rocco Baldelli didn’t shy away from the need for better performance on the offensive end: “If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together.” It's a sentiment echoed repeatedly as he added, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
The bullpen, once a reliable force with a 3.84 ERA and a top-ten ranking in win probability added (plus-3.41), has now become a thorn in the Twins’ side. Over the last 27 games, their ERA has ballooned to 5.47, ranking the worst in the league with a minus-2.75 win probability added. Fatigue seems to be taking its toll, as Griffin Jax lamented, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
Exposing the underbelly of their rotation, the rest of the rotation has managed just a 6.07 ERA over the same period, averaging a paltry 4.38 innings per start. The Twins have had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions, underscoring a troubling inability to close out games.
In an attempt to bolster their pitching staff, the Twins recently claimed Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who posted a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, is seen as a versatile addition. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have?" explained Derek Falvey. "He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
In terms of lineup strength, the anticipated return of Max Kepler offers a glimmer of hope. Meanwhile, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown some signs of life at the plate, combining to go 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month.
The coming days are critical for the Twins as they face intense competition from the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, both hot on their heels and just two games behind in the standings. While the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, the Tigers have been surging with a 23-10 record in their last 33 games.
With 17 games played in the last 18 days, the road ahead promises to be grueling. Baldelli's challenge will be to rally his squad, find consistency, and execute under pressure. "We have to put nine innings together," he reiterated, a simple yet vital directive as the Twins strive to keep their postseason aspirations alive.