Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team is an art that relies heavily on strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. As the upcoming season approaches, managers are diligently analyzing player statistics and historical performances to shape their rosters.
Consistency and Calculated Risks
Consistency from top players, particularly those selected beyond the initial draft picks, is a cornerstone of fantasy success. Joel Embiid, one of the premier big men in the NBA, is anticipated to average more than 60 fantasy points per game. Although he boasted an impressive 61 fantasy points per game last season, managers must weigh his injury history into their plans. Embiid has never surpassed 68 games in a season and played only 39 games in the last campaign.
The contrasting stability of Nikola Jokic is something fantasy managers find valuable. Jokic played 79 games last season and has never played fewer than 69 games in his career, providing both reliability and high performance—an invaluable combination in fantasy leagues.
LeBron James remains a significant player despite turning 40 this season. His recent track record of playing 71 games last season stands out, especially compared to the average of 52 games over the previous three seasons. His endurance will be closely watched, alongside teammate Anthony Davis, who played 76 games last season. However, it's worth noting that Davis has only managed to play more than 70 games in consecutive seasons once in his 12-year career.
The Young Stars and Their Challenges
Among the younger stars, Ja Morant's situation is particularly intriguing. Morant missed a substantial 73 games last season due to suspension and injury, yet his impressive averages of 26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG) over the past three seasons underline his potential when available. Now 25 years old, his future performance could be a game-changer for many fantasy teams.
The Veterans and Their Enduring Impact
Veteran Kevin Durant is entering his 18th NBA season at 36 years old, but his ability to play 75 games last season showcases his enduring durability and skill. Similarly, despite his inconsistency in games played, Kyrie Irving remains a high-impact player when he is on the court. Averaging 26.7 PPG, 49.3 FG%, 39.9 3P%, and 91.2 FT% over the last five seasons, Irving can be a fantasy gem. However, his average of 44.2 games per season over this period makes him a potential high-risk, high-reward pick. Last season, he ranked 22nd in fantasy points per game but only 47th in total fantasy points due to fewer games played.
Zion Williamson is another player with formidable potential but significant playtime issues. He averaged 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons. However, Williamson managed to participate in merely 90 out of a possible 236 regular-season games during this span. Last season, he reached a career-high by playing 70 games and even had an impressive late-season stretch averaging 27.1 PPG over 10 games. His availability will be a pivotal factor in his value.
Injury Concerns and Their Implications
Kawhi Leonard, who played 68 games last season, finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league. However, his history of knee issues, which caused him to miss 12 of the Clippers’ last 14 games, including the playoffs, might make managers cautious about relying on him.
As fantasy basketball drafts approach, managers will need to balance potential and risk, historical performances, and injury histories. The ability to identify and leverage consistent performers while judiciously taking chances on high-upside players will be key to building a championship-worthy roster in the upcoming season.