The 2024 NFL season is rapidly nearing its conclusion, and the spotlight is firmly fixed on the intensifying battle for the coveted No. 1 pick in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft. As it stands, the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders both find themselves plastered to the bottom of the standings with a dismal 2-12 record, each eager for the opportunity to draft a franchise-altering quarterback.
Giants' Historic Quest
The New York Giants, a team with a rich history, have only twice held the honor of the No. 1 pick. Their selections of Kyle Rote in 1951 and Tucker Frederickson in 1965 remain faint yet significant memories in the organization's storied past. However, the situation this season paints a stark picture as the Giants endure a punishing nine-game losing streak, highlighting their urgent need for a game-changing playmaker—particularly at the quarterback position.
Looking at their upcoming schedule, the Giants face challenging matchups against the Atlanta Falcons, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback woes continue to plague their roster, as injuries force potential changes under center, with Tim Boyle possibly stepping in for the sidelined Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock. The simulation models, in their cold analysis, currently give the Giants a 38.6% chance of securing the No. 1 pick, but also hint at a potential third victory before season's end.
Raiders' Unyielding Struggles
The Las Vegas Raiders have walked a similarly frustrating path this season. With a grim ten-game losing streak, the Raiders painfully reflect on the past, having only once before held the first overall pick since 1970 when they drafted JaMarcus Russell in 2007. Their early 2-2 start seems like an eternity ago as they now look to finish their final stretch against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Quarterback instability continues to be a signature challenge for the Raiders, as they possibly set with Desmond Ridder at the helm while Aidan O’Connell deals with a knee injury. Projections from simulation models place the Raiders' chances of capturing the top draft pick at 20.31%, with a forecast that aligns with the Giants' on potentially wrapping up the season with only three wins.
The Contenders Waiting in the Wings
In addition to the Giants and Raiders, five other teams hover ominously in the shadows, each maintaining a faint hope of landing the top pick. The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans each sit precariously on a 3-11 record. While their paths to the No. 1 pick might be narrow, the potential twists of the season's final games provide room for significant shifts in the draft order.
For instance, the Browns, with a calculated 13.32% chance according to these models, face a robust schedule featuring the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and a home finale against the Miami Dolphins. A strategic quarterback decision will see Dorian Thompson-Robinson take the field against Cincinnati, with veteran Jameis Winston relegated to the bench.
Draft Prospects on the Horizon
The potential prize for securing the first overall pick amplifies the intensity of this battle. Prolific talents like Shedeur Sanders from the Colorado Buffaloes and Cam Ward from the Miami (FL) Hurricanes are prominent draft prospects, each capable of altering the fortunes of any franchise struggling from the depths of NFL mediocrity.
As the dust continues to settle on this unpredictable season, anticipation builds around which team will emerge with the opportunity to reshape their future dramatically. The implication of landing a generational quarterback cannot be overstated, and for the Giants, Raiders, and their fellow contenders, the stakes could not be higher.
With tension mounting and the draft order still far from settled, the conclusion of the 2024 NFL season promises to be a thrilling culmination of triumph, heartache, and historic significance.